What's Happening in College Admission?

This year, each College Connection issue will feature a current college admission-related topic. The following excerpted Inside Higher Ed article, “Fewer 18-Year-Olds Enrolled in College This Fall” (Weismann, December 3, 2024), describes the recent drop in college enrollment of 18-year-old freshman students. 

Enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen dropped 5% this fall compared to last, a reversal of gains made in 2023, according to a new data analysis released by the National College Attainment Network.

The special analysis, conducted by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, was commissioned by NCAN to take an early look at first-year enrollment trends after the U.S. Department of Education’s delayed rollout of last year’s Free Application for Federal Student Aid. The new form, intended to simplify the financial aid process, was riddled with glitches that made it hard for many to complete and waylaid students’ financial aid packages.

The analysis uses data from the end of October, covering about 80% of higher education institutions and 82.3% of students enrolled across the country. This year’s steep drop in 18-year-old freshman enrollment contrasts sharply with the 3% enrollment bump the group experienced from 2022 to 2023. Enrollment fell for this demographic in 46 states this fall, with an average drop of 7.1%.

All racial groups felt the decline in enrollment of 18-year-olds, but the most significant change was in the enrollment of white students. 

According to the article, “White 18-year-old enrollment dropped 10 percent between fall 2023 and 2024, compared to 8.4 percent for multiracial students, 8.2 percent for Black students, 5.7 percent for Asian students and 2.1 percent for Hispanic students.

However, according to the analysis, the starkest enrollment drops were among freshmen of color at highly selective colleges and universities.

White 18-year-old enrollment at those institutions only fell 4.7%, whereas Black freshman enrollment plummeted 19.6% at highly selective public institutions and 13.8% at highly selective private ones. Multiracial students saw similarly sharp declines: 14.8% at highly selective public institutions and 13.7% at highly selective private institutions. Hispanic freshman enrollment also fell—8.9% at highly selective public institutions and 6.7% at highly selective private ones.

Bill DeBaun, Senior Director of NCAN, said, “It’s ‘very hard’ to pinpoint the exact cause of these results given the confluence of FAFSA problems and the downfall of affirmative action. The affirmative action decision could have contributed to enrollment declines among freshmen of color at highly selective institutions by reducing their admissions numbers or exerting a ‘chilling effect’ on the students applying. But because the FAFSA glitches delayed award letters from colleges, some students also had to make enrollment decisions without adequate information about their financial aid packages.”